Mexico Open

Mexico Open

It was another disappointing week for us at the Genesis Invitational as none of our players ever got seriously in to the mix. Our headline hope Justin Thomas, perhaps sidetracked by playing with Tiger once more, failed to turn up, while Theegala, as was my one fear, looked jaded from the exertions of Phoenix. With Burns and Scott then unable to string four strong rounds together we once more drew a blank.

It has undeniably been a poor start to 2024 and we can only hope that there is better fortune for us just around the corner.

The event itself was won by Hideki Matsuyama, something, which added to our frustrations having been on him last week. The Japanese star produced a scintillating final round of 62 to come from behind and overhaul the 54 hole leader Patrick Cantlay, who produced another disappointing Sunday effort.

So we move on and this week the PGA Tour heads across the border to Mexico for the second playing of the revitalised Mexico Open on the Tour.

The Mexico Open was first held in 1944 and in recent years has been part of the PGA Tour of Latino America. Last year however after the demise of the WGC Mexico the event became part of the full PGA Tour schedule.

The event is hosted by Grupo Salinas who were the hosts for the former WGC event and as was the case last year is to be held at the Vidanta Vallarta resort in Vallarta.

The field lacks strength in depth however and with the gaping hole of Jon Rahm it is the defending champion Tony Finau who dominates the betting market.

Behind Finau in the market we then have Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo ad Stephan Jaeger.

COURSE

The course is a par 71 measuring 7456 yards.

The course features four par fives, three of which are on the back nine, a driveable par four seventh hole measuring just under 300yds and five par threes.

The course is a Greg Norman design so it is worth looking at results at the other two Norman courses used regularly on tour, TPC San Antonio, host of the recent Valero Texas Open and perhaps more significantly El Cameleon host of the Mayakoba also held in Mexico.

The greens are paspalum. Other courses to feature Paspalum greens on Tour are the aforementioned El Cameleon, along with the host courses for the Corales Puntacana and Puerto Rico events. In addition the now defunct CIMB Classic used to feature Paspalum greens as does Kiawah Island the host of the 2021 PGA Championship.

Based on the first couple of years here length of the tee appears to be an advantage with accuracy off the tee not important as the fairways are wide and the rough not significant.

Wind however can be a factor particularly in the afternoon.

Water is also fully in play on six or seven holes.

Unlike the former WGC Mexico event altitude is not a factor this week as the course is at sea level.

HISTORY

With the event only being in its third year since its resurrection as a PGA Tour event on this course we have very little to go on. Let’s look at the top ten from the first two years though.

2023

1 T Finau
T J Rahm
3 B Wu
4 A Bhatia
T5 E Grillo, A Smotherman, E Cole
T8 C Champ, B Taylor.
T10 A Tosti, B Hossler, P Rodgers, J Bramlett, H Hall.

2022

1 Jon Rahm
T2 T Finau, K Kitayama, B Wu, D Riley
T6 C Champ, A Wise, A Smalley, D Lipsky
10 P Rodgers.

So what does this tell us? Well not a lot to be honest as reverse one – two finishes for Rahm and Finau, by far the biggest class acts who have teed it up here over the first two editions doesn’t really tell us anything.

Rahm has made a habit of hoovering up in events where he is an overwhelming short priced jolly so it was no surprise he won here in 2022, while Finau’s win came in the midst of a solid 2023 and like Rahm he had started to show a propensity for striking in these lesser events with his back to back wins in the 3M and Rocket Mortgage in 2022. In addition of course he had shown a liking for here when finishing runner up to Rahm in 2022.

Looking at his stats for the week of his win Rahm ranked second off the tee and third from tee to green, while in 2022 Finau ranked first from tee to green. Conversely that year Finau ranked 60th on the greens while Rahm was only 18th in this department

Roll on 12 months and Finau fared much better on the greens ranking eighth, while he ranked seventh off the tee and 11th in approach play, so he produced a great all round performance. Rahm meanwhile ranked second off the tee and second on the greens, however he was only 28th in approach play on the week.

Meanwhile third place home last year Brandon Wu ranked fifth off the tee and first on the greens. All in all then from the limited data we have it would seem that the key stat here is Strokes Gained Off The Tee, with a hot putter as always helping.

Neither Rahm nor Finau of course are slouches off the tee and with Champ one of the biggest hitters on tour, along with Kitayama, Wise, Smalley, Rodgers and Tosti, all of whom are longer than average off the tee, also finishing in the top ten here over the first two years, it would certainly seem distance here is of benefit.

Another obvious link here is form on other tracks, which feature Paspalum greens. Smalley had a few weeks prior to his sixth place in 2022 finished runner up on the paspalum at the Corales. Brandon Wu something of a specialist here has a third place finish in Puerto Rico two his name, Akshay Bhatia who was fourth here last year had won earlier in the year on the Korn ferry on paspalum.

Finally on the paspalum front the 11th place home here in 2022 Nate Lashley is a bit of a specialist at the Corales having won there before while the player who tied 11th place with him, Martin Trainer is a former Puerto Rico champion.

Courses on the PGA Tour we are looking at on this front are the historical Mayakoba track, the El Cardonal track, which replaced it and the Puerto Rico and Corales venue.

In addition to form on the paspalum general coastal form is of course also of value, with the likes of Brandon Wu often popping up on leaderboards when the sea is in sight.

From a winning score point of view in 2022 Rahm triumphed on 17- under while the four players who finished in a tie for second all posted 16- under. Last year though Finau significantly improved on this number posting 24- under.

WEATHER FORECAST

After several weeks of interruptions on the PGA Tour I am pleased to say we look set for a warm sunny week with temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

Wind, which is the courses main defence looks like it could be a slight factor with gusts of 15mph+ in the forecast across the week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with six players this week as follows;

KEITH MITCHELL – 28/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 19th

I will start things off this week with Keith Mitchell.

It is almost five years since Mitchell landed his maiden PGA Tour title by the coast at the Honda Classic and Keith will no doubt be as disappointed as anyone that he has failed to add to it since.

This year though Mitchell has been producing some solid stuff to date and with a second trophy for his cabinet long overdue this looks a great opportunity for him to bag it.

17th last time out in Phoenix Keith also has a ninth place finish at the Amex to his name this season and his stats show us that he is currently sitting fourth in Strokes-Gained-Off-The-Tee for this season, the key stat for this week, an area, which he also ranked seventh in last season.

Furthermore as one of the bigger hitters on tour we know his length will be an advantage here.

Granted this is Keith’s debut in this event but the above all does point to the course being to his liking. In addition although this is his first start here on the PGA Tour we do have a bit of course form to go on as Keith played here back in 2015 in the Mexico Open on the Latino America Tour and finished fifth.

Away from this track we also have some really positive form on the paspalum in that the Georgia man finished second at the Corales Puntacana event in 2018, which we know links really well here.

All in all then, in an event, which outside of the ‘jolly’ Finau looks wide open, Mitchell looks a great fit for the task ahead and I am keen to side with him.

PATRICK RODGERS – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 6th

Next up this week its another chance for a familiar face in these columns as we go back to the well with Patrick Rodgers.

We have sided with Patrick once this season to date at the Farmers and he produced a really solid effort, before falling agonisingly for us just outside of the places in ninth place.

Since then Patrick has seemingly gone off the boil posting a lacklustre 79th place at the rain effected Pebble Beach event before a double bogey at the last in the Genesis on Friday saw him fall outside of the cut line.

Despite that disappointment though there was some encouragement in Patrick’s numbers at Riviera as on day one he ranked sixth off the tee and seventh in driving accuracy while on Friday he ranked 27th in approach play and fifth in good old fashioned GIR. Unfortunately though a cold putter for both days along with a bad day with the driver on Friday put paid to his week.

On to this week then and Rodgers will surely be happy to get back to a venue that he has played very nicely on for the past two years finishing tenth on both visits. Indeed the fact that Rodgers has performed so well here is not surprising as his distance off the tee should certainly be an asset, while he has consistently shown at venues like Sea Island and Bermuda that he enjoys a coastal test.

Still searching for that elusive first tour win it is understandable that questions will continue to be asked until he bags it, however this event is there for the taking and I am happy to risk that this is the week it all comes together for the Stanford grad.

SAM STEVENS – 70/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1st 8. - FINISHED MC

Moving on and my next pick is a player who I don’t believe I have sided with before, Sam Stevens.

Stevens debuted full time on the PGA Tour last season and a strong maiden campaign saw him finish 65th in the Fedex rankings.

Sam’s best effort of that season was a runner up finish in Texas in April, however tellingly for this week two of his other best efforts away from that were a 15th in Puerto Rico and a third in the Corales so clearly he is a fan of the paspalum. Furthermore from a coastal form point of view his other most eye catching performance came at Torrey Pines where he was 13th.

Longer than average off the tee, ranking 28th in that department last season and 16th so far this, Sam’s length should stand him in good stead here, while his ranking off 31st off the tee last season and this to date also offers encouragement in the right area.

With regards to course form Stevens chose to skip this event last year however he finished ninth here in 2021 on the Latino America Tour so he does have a positive sighting of the track in his memory bank.

Sam embarked on the often difficult sophomore season at the Sony Open in January posting a 63 on his way to 24th place and has gone to play solidly on his subsequent starts making all further three cuts.

This week then getting back on the paspalum, back to the coast and with his length looking an advantage I can see Sam stepping up a gear and I am keen to have him on side.

CARSON YOUNG – 80/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED T8th

Next up I will give another chance to a player I risked here last year at huge odds, Carson Young.

I sided with Young here last year based on some eye catching efforts by the coast and on paspalum and while he didn’t quite deliver his 15th place finish as a 300/1 shot certainly showed we were on the right track.

To expand further on Carson’s coastal/paspalum efforts and in March 2023 he backed up a good performance by the coast at the Honda to produce a third place finish in Puerto Rico where he was in poll position to win through 36 and 54 holes before stalling perhaps inevitably on Sunday.

Carson then added a 38th at the Corales before giving us another huge clue later in the year to how much he enjoys this type of test by finishing ninth in Mexico at the World Wide Technologies Championship in November.
A win south of the border by the coast in Panama on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 shows us that Carson is not afraid of getting the job done on Sunday when it counts, while that win also gives us a nice rubber stamp to the fact that he appears to enjoy his golf when he heads out of the mainland US.

Moving in to 2024 and while not producing anything spectacular yet Young has played solidly making three cuts from four starts with a best placed finish of 17th at the American Express so he has been ticking along nicely, particularly as last year he failed to make a cut in the early part of 2023 until the tour headed East to the Honda.

This week then heading to an event that is far more to his liking than anything to date so far this year I can see Carson really stepping it up and I am very keen to have him onside.

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CHAN KIM – 100/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED T8th

Next up this week I can’t resist a speculative play on Chan Kim.

At 33yrs of age it has certainly been a long and circuitous route that has lead to Chan finally becoming a full time PGA Tour member however there is no doubting that he is a player who knows how to win and has what it takes to succeed out here.

An eight time winner on the Japanese Tour Kim secured his PGA Tour card by winning in back to back weeks on the Korn Ferry last summer with winning totals of 20- under and 28- under. Clearly then he is comfortable in a low scoring birdie fest, which is what I would anticipate this week.

Starting out on his maiden full season on Tour Chan has already shown glimpses of really strong stuff as although he has missed the cut in two of his three starts he posted a 64 in round two of the Sony and a 66 in round two at the Farmers. In addition he banked a really nice cheque at the Amex where rounds of 64 67 68 & 67 saw him finish 14th.

Born in South Korea Kim was actually brought up in Hawaii so perhaps not unsurprisingly he has caught the eye by the coast in limited opportunities on the PGA Tour. Firstly he finished 11th at Royal Birkdale back in 2017 after he qualified in to the Open and then he was 23rd on the paspalum at Kiawah Island in the PGA in 2021. Finally in 2023 again on the paspalum he notched a 16th place in Puerto Rico.

A look at Kim’s stats show us that he is at his best off the tee, currently ranking 19th in this area on Tour this season, the key stat for here, while he ranked 20th in total driving on the Korn Ferry Tour last season.

Clearly consistency isn’t Chan’s strong point and there is every chance he fails to ‘turn up’ this week. Equally though as a player who is capable of explosive busts of scoring, is a proven winner and has performed well by the coast on paspalum, he has a lot of upside to him and at the odds on offer I am happy to take a risk.

CARL YUAN – 125/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 52nd

Finally this week I return to a player who we undeniably got our fingers burnt with a couple of weeks ago in Phoenix, Carl Yuan.

On that occasion Yuan withdrew after day one citing a neck injury after a torrid opening 77. With big weather delays on the horizon and languishing way down the pack only Carl will know how serious that neck issue was. Either way though his week was over by Thursday evening and we have to trust that if he is teeing it up here that problem has cleared up.

The fact that Carl bombed in Phoenix obviously wasn’t a huge surprise, as, like our previous pick Chan Kim, consistency clearly isn’t Yuan's strong suit. That said what we have is a player who has hit the frame three times in his last nine starts so clearly when the mood takes him he knows how to make it count.

On to this week then and most importantly Carl ranks tenth off the tee on tour having ranked 67th in this category last season while he is also one of the longer hitters out there sitting 47th in distance last campaign.

Meanwhile it can only be a positive that two of Carl’s big efforts have come by the coast at the Sony and at the back end of last year in Bermuda. Furthermore while he didn’t pull up any trees here last year when finishing 55th we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that Yuan produced that effort on the back of a run of seven missed cuts and a 63rd place finish in eight starts so I would see that performance as a positive one. Finally a third place finish on the paspalum in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry in 2022 is another positive.

To sum up then Carl is a player who has shown on the Korn Ferry that he knows how to win and while he can be hugely inconsistent I believe can win at this level and I am more than happy to roll the dice on him again this week.